8006 Exam I: Finance Theory Financial Instruments Financial Markets - 2015 Edition Questions and Answers

Choice 'b' lists all the factors that affect the forward price of a physical asset and is the most complete answer. Forward prices for physical assets are not affected by volatility (only options are), nor are they arbitrarily decided by any prevailing 'views'.

Remember that:

- American options can be exercised at any time up to expiry

- European options can only be exercised at expiry

- Bermudan options can be exercised prior to expiry but only at certain dates or during certain specified periods, and not otherwise

- Since an American option can be exercised at any time prior to expiry while a European option can only be exercised at expiry, an American option will always be worth more than a European option

Therefore the first three statements are incorrect and Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

Tailing the hedge refers to adjusting the number of futures contracts required to hedge a position given that futures contracts result in daily cash flows from daily P&L. In the case of forward contracts, P&L is not settled daily but at the end of the contract. Because margin payments (ie the daily P&L) for futures contracts create interest cost or income (depending upon the direction of the flows), the number of contracts required to hedge a given position can fluctuate. This effect is generally small for small positions, or where the time period under consideration is not very long. But it can get large for larger positions that are open for longer time periods, therefore requiring an adjustment to 'tail the hedge'. The adjustment is straightforward - the number of contracts required needs to be divided by (1+r)t, where r is the interest and t the time period (or by ert if continuously compounded rates are being used. Therefore statement I is true and statement II is false.

Statement III is not correct as counterparty risk is certainly an issue for forward contracts, while futures contracts are guaranteed by the exchange, besides having margin requirements and daily P&L movement in place.

Statement IV is not correct as futures come in standardized contracts with standard amounts and a few standard expiry dates to pick, whereas forward contracts are customized and dates, amounts and other details of the contract can be negotiated.

A zero coupon bond has a Macaulay duration equal to its maturity, ie in this case 5 years. We can calculate modified duration from Macaulay duration by using the following relationship:

Modified duration = Macaulay duration/(1 + y) where y is the yield.

Therefore the correct answer is 5 / (1.05) = 4.76.

Or intuitively, all the other answers appear clearly incorrect: 5 and 5.25 are too high, and 4 is too low. Therefore the only reasonable choice is 4.76.

Statement I correctly describes an IRS.

Statement II is correct - in an IRS the parties do not exchange the principal or the notional amounts as they are in the same currency and can be netted off, but in a currency swap the amounts are in different currencies that cannot be netted (not at least without doing a spot transaction simultaneously), and principals are exchanged.

Statement III is incorrect as the floating rate leg actually is subject to no risk as it resets itself to the current interest rate. The true risk is in the fixed leg which is sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Swaps carry counterparty risks just like any other OTC contract, therefore statement IV is false.

A cash or nothing call is one that pays a fixed amount if the underlying exceeds a certain threshold, or nothing. An asset or nothing call is the same as the cash or nothing call except that instead of paying a fixed amount, it 'pays' the asset. Therefore the payoff profile of a long asset or nothing call has the same payoff as a long cash or nothing call and a long vanilla call.

This is best considered by building payoff diagrams which will show how the two positions are economically equivalent. Choice 'd' is the correct answer, and the rest are not.

T-bill futures and fed futures are very short term futures contracts, and unlikely to provide much of a hedge against a rise in interest rates. FRAs however are customized and would be the right instrument for the borrower to hedge his interest rate risk. A long FRA position gives him the right to borrow at an agreed rate in the future. This rate will not change regardless of the changes in interest rates, and therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

https://riskprep.com/images/stories/questions/102.06.a.png  is the coefficient of risk aversion at x. Its inverse, ie https://riskprep.com/images/stories/questions/102.06.b.png , is called the coefficient of risk tolerance.

Risk aversion or risk tolerance is indicated in a utility function by its curvature. A concave utility function indicates risk aversion and a convex function indicates risk tolerance. The curvature is measured as a ratio of the second derivative to the first derivative of a function. A negative second derivative implies concavity. The expression is the coefficient of risk aversion, and its inverse, which is in the same units as wealth, is called the coefficient of risk tolerance.

The correct answer is Choice 'b', as this question is merely asking for the forward rate based on known spot rates. The forward rate applicable to the three month period commencing in 3 months time is given by [(1 + 6%*6/12)/(1 + 5%*3/12) - 1]*4 = 6.91%. Thus Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Here is a step by step way to think about it: $1 invested now at 6% for 6 months grows to (1 + 6%*6/12)=1.03. At the same time, using the 3 month rate, $1 invested now at 5% for 3 months grows to (1 + 5%*3/12)=1.0125. Effectively, this means that the 1.0125 at the end of 3 months grow to 1.03 at the end of 6 months, implying the rate of interest during the 3 months from 3 to 6 months is (1.03/1.0125 - 1)*4 = 6.91%.

Choice 'a' correctly describes a 'holder extendible option'. Choice 'b' describes a 'writer extendible option'. Choice 'c' describes a 'shout option'. Choice 'd' describes a 'knock in' option.

This question highlights the difference between zero rates, yield-to-maturity and forward rates. Forward rates are from one point in time to another, for example say from year 4 to 5 in the future. A zero rate is from time 0, or now, to a point in time in the future. The zero rate is dependent on the forward rates for all the different periods from now to the future. The yield curve represents the various zero rates at different points in time, and if it is upward sloping it means forward rates for years further out are greater than the years prior. That is what causes the zero rate yields to increase over time and the curve to slope upwards. So the forward rate from year 9 to 10 will certainly be higher than the 10 year zero rate.

The yield-to-maturity for a bond is the rate at which the payments on the bond discount to be equal to the current bond price. It is therefore the average rate that applies to the bond. This average is based upon the different zero rates for the years in which bond holders receive payments. Since coupons are smaller than the payment at maturity, the zero rate that applies to the payment at maturity will have the most impact on the numerical value of the bond's yield-to-maturity. Also affecting the yield-to-maturity will be the values of the coupon payments, which will be discounted at lower rates when the yield curve is upward sloping. So the yield-to-maturity will be an average lower than the 10 year zero. Since the 10 year zero will be lower than the forward rate from t=9-10, the yield-to-maturity will be the lowest rate of the three.

The existence of derivative markets actually drives liquidity out of cash markets into derivative markets. Derivative markets are far more liquid than cash markets. Therefore statement I is not correct.

In times of crises, instruments or financial products bearing greater credit risk lose liquidity rapidly. Therefore statement II is correct.

A higher bid-ask spread indicates lower liquidity, not greater liquidity. Therefore statement III is false.

Normal market size (NMS) refers the 'normal' transaction size for which a dealer's quote is valid. A higher NMS is associated with greater liquidity, therefore statement IV is correct.

The transformation line represents the various possible combinations of the 'risky bundle' and the risk free asset. Investors can choose different combinations of the risky and risk-free asset depending upon their risk appetite. The transformation line meets the y-axis (portfolio returns) at the point equal to the risk free rate. Choice 'a' is the correct answer and the rest are incorrect.

The highest possible transformation line, ie the transformation line with the maximum slope, is the transformation line joining the risk free rate on the y-axis and the portfolio with the maximum Sharpe ratio on the efficient frontier. This line is called the 'capital markets line'. Investors can pick any point on this line according to their risk appetite, and doing so would maximize the return they can obtain for their desired level of risk. The capital markets line is tangential to the efficient frontier. The Sharpe ratio stays constant throughout the CML.

Remember that the transformation line and the capital markets lines are different from each other - there is only one CML for an efficient frontier, whereas there can be multiple transformation lines.

When hedging one fixed income security with another, the question as to how much of the hedge to buy (or sell) (ie the hedge ratio) for a given primary position is determined by their respective basis point values, which in turn are determined by their duration. Therefore, when hedging a long maturity bond with a PV01 of $3 with a short maturity bond that has a PV of $1, we will need to buy 3 times the notional value of the short maturity bond to achieve the same sensitivity to interest rates as the longer maturity bond.

Additionally, we may also expect the interest rates on the hedge to move differently from the interest rates on the primary instrument being hedged, and this needs to be accounted for as well as part of the hedge ratio calculation. This is called the yield beta and is calculated as change in yield for primary position/change in yield for the hedge security.

The hedge ratio is determined both by the yield beta and the BPVs of the two securities. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

According to the dividend discount model, the spot share prices represent the present value of all the future cash flows from the stock. If held till perpetuity, this becomes an annuity equal to the dividend, growing at its expected growth rate. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer. Choice 'c' would represent the total market cap, and not the value per share that the question asks.

Delta hedges need to be rebalanced periodically because with changes in prices, delta changes, and the amount of hedge required changes as well, requiring a readjustment. The more frequent the rebalancing, the better the performance of the hedge. However, the greater the rebalancing frequency, the greater are the number of trades required, increasing the costs from trading. The trader has to balance transaction costs against the adverse effects from poorer hedge performance. Therefore rebalancing frequency is a consideration for a trader and statement I is true.

Statement II is not true. When options are granted, their future impact on the price gets priced in into the current price, and no change occurs when these are actually exercised.

Statement III is true. Consider the Black Scholes PDE

202.23.e1

and substitute delta = 0 (as this is a delta neutral portfolio), and we get the result 202.23.e. Since r is generally small, a large negative theta means a large positive gamma and vice-versa. Therefore theta can be used as a proxy for gamma and this statement is correct.

Statement IV is correct. Vega is highest closest to the strike price - look at the graph for vega to see how vega behaves with changes to spot. (Do it yourself or there is a graph in the tutorial too.)

The loss to the fund manager is $20*100 = $2,000. The initial margin placed was $5,000. After the loss is charged to his account, the margin balance is only $3,000 ($5,000 - $2,000). The margin to be maintained is $5,000. Therefore the margin call is $2,000.

Note that there would have been no margin call till the balance in the margin account had reduced to the 'maintenance' level of $4,000. So if the price had fallen by $5, and the loss had been $500, there would have been no margin call. But when the margin call would be made, it would require the balance to be brought up to the initial margin of $5,000 (and not the maintenance margin of $4,000).

Kappa indices, which include the Sortino ratio and the Omega statistic, consider semi-variance, ie variance calculated only in respect of the downside risk instead of variance (which includes both upside and downside). This is because one criticism of other risk adjusted performance measures is that they take both upside and downside risk into account, even though a portfolio manager or investor is only concerned with managing the downside. The Kappa indices consider returns that are below a threshold to measure performance by. Therefore statement I is correct.

The Treynor ratio is calculated as [(Portfolio return - Risk free return)/Portfolio's beta]. It therefore calculates the excess return per unit of systematic risk and not specific risk. Therefore statement II is not correct.

Increasing portfolio leverage, ie borrowing to invest more in the portfolio, will increase the excess return of the portfolio in a linear fashion. However, it will also increase the volatility of such a portfolio in an identical linear way. Since Sharpe ratio is the ratio of 'excess returns' to standard deviation, the Sharpe ratio will stay constant. In other words, leverage does not impact Sharpe ratio, which is an attribute of this measure that allows us to compare performance across managers and funds regardless of leverage used. Statement III is not correct.

Jensen's alpha results from security selection, ie from specific risk the manager has taken. In a market portfolio, all specific risk is diversified away and only systematic risk remains. Therefore, statement IV is correct.

When forward prices are greater than the spot prices, the market is said to be in contango. When forward prices are lower than spot prices, the market is said to be backwarded. A short squeeze may contribute to backwardation as shorts try to buy in the spot market to cover their short positions. Similarly, expectations of oversupply in the future, for example due to a bumper harvest may create situations where the forward prices fall below spot prices. Convenience yield is the benefit from having access to the commodity - and if the convenience yield is very high, for example in a market where manufacturers must never run out of a particular raw material, then these can switch the costs of carry (which include interest and storage costs, less convenience yields) to being negative.

Since all these factors can contribute to backwardation in the market, Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of refined products and crude oil. An option on the crack spread can protect a refiner from both a fall in the price of its output and a rise in the price of its inputs. Calendar spreads are options with different maturities. Crude oil futures and swaps only protect against an adverse change in the price of crude, and not that of refined products. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

This question touches upon a couple of issues that relate to hedging foreign exchange exposures using futures contracts. Firstly, many futures contracts on exchanges are available only at specific maturity dates, for example, the IMM dates. They may or may not coincide with actual liabilities for a running business. Also, futures contracts are standardized, ie their notional amounts are fixed rounded sums, and they can only be traded in whole numbers. This often means business using futures for hedging end up having a close enough, but not perfect hedge.

For our importer in the question, clearly he has to buy USDs so he can make his payment. Since each contract gives him USD 100k, he should buy 11 contracts that will get him very close to the amount he finally needs. Also, the contract expires a month later than his liability is due. This means he should offset the contract by closing it out in August soon as he has made his payment. This will allow him to stay hedged till August. If he does not sell out of the contracts, he will become exposed to a long position for one month till the contract settles, a risk which is unnecessary for him.

Therefore Choice 'b' is the best answer.

Equity futures are by far the most traded futures contracts in terms of value, followed by interest rate products. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

All the choices list inputs into the determination of futures prices. Therefore volatility in any of them affects the volatility of futures prices. Of course, the largest contributor to the volatility is the volatility of the spot price of the underlying. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

This question is based upon a weather derivative contract traded on the CME in the US. For each day, 'Heating-Degree-Days' (HDD) is calculated as equal to 65 degrees Fahrenheit minus the daily average temperature. The daily average temperature is based upon the temperature reported by the Earth Satellite Corporation using a specified automated weather station. Based upon daily values of HDD, an aggregated number called the 'CME degree days index' is calculated for each contract month. In other words, the index for a particular month is just the aggregation of the 'HDD' value for each of the days of that month. Each contract settles at the end of the month at a value equal to $20 x Degree Days Index. (In a similar way, 'Cooling Degree Days' are also calculated and a futures contract offered, except that CDD is equal to the average daily temperature minus 65 degrees). (Source: CME's website at CMEGroup.com)

In the given question, we are interested in hedging against the possibility of the temperature being too low. This means we should buy the HDD futures contract (the lower the temperature, the higher the difference of the average temperature from 65 degrees, and the higher the settlement). Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. The lower the actual temperature turns out to be, the higher the payout to the grower. It would not be wise to wait till January to buy the contract as by then the prices of the contract would have already risen if the grower's fears of a colder January appear to be coming true. He can hedge his exposure by immediately locking in the January prices.

The mean can be calculated quite easily as a weighted average, and in this case it is 0.6*5% + 0.4*3% = 4.2%.

The variance can be calculated with the formula for portfolio variance as = (0.6^2)*(20%^2) + (0.4^2)*(5%^2) + 2*(-0.6)*0.6*0.4*20%*5%=0.01192. Therefore the volatility of this portfolio is SQRT(0.01192)=10.92%

The zero coupon spot rate for 4 years can be calculated as = (1.02*1.03*1.04*1.05)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.49%, which is the correct answer. (3.50% is just the mathematical average of the rates for the four years and is not correct, even though close.)

The Sharpe ratio is the ratio of excess returns to risk. Excess returns are measured as the returns over the risk-free rate, and risk is measured in terms of volatility, ie standard deviation. Two portfolios with identical Sharpe ratios will certainly have the same ratio of risk and return, though the absolute levels of the return and the risk may vary. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

Implied volatility is the volatility that is priced in the current market prices. In other words, we know the formula for pricing an option, and we find the value of the volatility for which we get the current market price. It is the volatility that the market is ascribing to that security. Therefore statement I is not correct.

Implied volatility in the market tends to vary across strikes, even with the same underlying. There is a certain level of demand for out of the money puts, for example, from investors trying to set a floor for their losses. At the same time, there is a natural supply of out of the money calls from investors trying to earn some relatively risk free premiums. These factors cause options with different strikes to be priced in a way as to give different estimates of market volatility at each strike *& resulting in the 'volatility smile'). Therefore statement II is not correct.

The shape of the implied volatility curve is called the 'volatility smile', because of the shape it sometimes takes. Statement III is correct.

Theta is the rate of change of an option's price with the passage of time. It causes the value of the option to decrease over time, such that if it is out of the money and close to expiry, the price of the option approaches zero. Theta is therefore negative by definition. Statement IV is not correct. Remember that theta will be positive for short positions.

A utility function provides a description of an individual or a firm's risk attitude. It expresses how risk seeking or risk averse a firm or an individual is. The utility function would explain differences between risk seeking and risk averse behavior, for example, as an individual becomes richer, he may seek (or shun) risk more than before. A utility function incorporates all of this, and therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

The put-call parity can be expressed as:

Call – Put = Spot – PV of exercise price

Note that a negative sign above means a short position. The 'term PV of exercise price' is the same as a bank deposit placed today equivalent to the PV of the exercise price so that we will have the cash flow on the exercise date to exercise the option.

Therefore only Choice 'd' is the correct answer as rearranging the above gives us Buying a call + Bank Deposit = Buying the stock + Buying a put.

Choice 'd' is therefore the correct answer.

A swaption is an option to enter into a fixed for floating interest rate swap at a point in the future, with the fixed rate decided upfront. These options can be European, Bermudan or American, in terms of what dates the option can be exercised. A receiver option on a swap is an option that gives the buyer the right to enter into a swap and receive the fixed rate and pay the variable rate. In the case of a payer option, the buyer pays the fixed rate and receives the variable rate. One way to remember this is that receiving and paying are terms used with reference to the fixed rates.

There was no event such as the CDO squeeze in 2008. (Quite on the contrary, securitized products were selling at distressed prices.).

The silver squeeze of 1979-80 (Hunt brothers), the Chicago fire of 1872 (leading to a short squeeze on wheat), and the wheat squeeze (Hutchingson) of 1866 are real historical events that led to short squeezes in commodity markets. Choice 'b' is therefore the correct answer.

For the PRM exam, you should try to remember the event broadly, and the commodity involved.

Choice 'b' represents a correct description of a bullet bond. All other choices are incorrect.

There are two main theories that explain an upward sloping yield curve. The first is the market expectations hypothesis (called 'pure expectations'). According to this explanation, the yield curve represents investor expectations of future yields, and forward rates are predictors of future interest rates. The yield curve slopes upwards when investors expect interest rates to go up in the future. Thus, statement I is correct. By the same logic, statement II is incorrect.

The second explanation for an upward sloping yield curve is the liquidity preference theory - according to which investors value liquidity and are prepared to pay more for instruments that mature earlier. Having their money tied up in longer maturity instruments increases all kinds of risks, and therefore longer term instruments are priced lower than instruments maturing earlier. Since the price of instruments that mature earlier is higher, their yield is lower than that of longer dated securities, thereby leading to an upward sloping yield curve. Therefore statement III is correct.

Statement IV actually explains why an yield curve may be downward sloping - in fact an inverted yield curve is considered an indicator of an upcoming recession. Therefore statement IV does not explain an upward sloping yield curve, and is therefore not a correct choice for the answer.

Thus statements I and III correctly explain an upward sloping yield curve. Other choices are incorrect.

A fixed for floating interest rate swap is identical to a series of forward rate agreements coinciding with the settlement periods. For example, a 2 year fixed for floating interest rate swap where the investor pays fixed at 6 monthly rests is equivalent to a long position in 3 FRAs ( a 6 x12, a 12 x 18 and an 18 x 24 FRA). Thus I represents a correct replication of the swap.

An obligation to pay fixed is identical to a short position in a fixed rate bond, and receiving the floating rate is akin to a long position in a floating rate note. Thus II also correctly replicates the swap.

A long position in an FRN correctly replicates the floating cash flow from the swap, but a short position in the FRA obliges the investor to receive fixed and pay floating - which is not equivalent to the flows from the interest rate swap. Thus III is not a correct replication of the interest.

A long position in a cap means the investor will receive the difference between the floating and the cap rate if the floating rate is greater than the cap rate. Effectively, the investor will receive floating. A short postion in a floor at the same strike rate would mean the investor would end up paying the floor rate, effectively equivalent to the obligation to pay a fixed rate. Therefore this replication also correctly replicates the swap, and IV can also be used to replicate the investor's position.

Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer and the rest are incorrect.

(For statement IV, let me explain with an example. Recall that the buyer of a cap receives the difference between the current interest rate and the agreed exercise rate if the current interest rate goes above the exercise rate. A cap can be used by a floating rate borrower to limit their exposure to a rise in interest rates. In the same way, the seller of a floor pays the buyer the difference between the current interest rate and the exercise rate if the current interest rate falls below the exercise rate. A floor can be used by a lender to protect against a fall in interest rates.

Now assume the exercise rate is r. Also assume that the current floating interest rate is r'. the holder of the interest rate swap in the example in the question receives r and pays r'. Therefore the net payout is r' - r (pays fixed, ie -r, and receives floating, ie +r).

Now consider the long position in the cap and the short position in the floor.

Case 1: If r > r', the following will happen:

a. The long position in the cap will pay nothing, ie 0.

b. The short position in the floor will require a payment of r - r' to the buyer of the floor, and because it is a payment, the cash flow will be -(r - r') = r' - r

Case 2: If r < r', the following will happen:

a. The long position in the cap will mean the investor receives r' - r.

b. The short position in the floor will pay nothing as the interest rate is higher than the exercise rate.

In both cases, the net cash flow for the investor is r' - r, which is the same as for the swap where the investor pays fixed and receives floating.)

On-the-run bonds yield less, and therefore are priced higher than similar off-the-run bonds. The difference in their pricing reflects the fact that on-the-run bonds are more liquid than off-the-run bonds. Therefore statements I and II are correct. Bonds are on-the-run when they are issued, and change hands frequently, and over time as they become 'seasoned', newer bonds take their place as on-the-run bonds making them off-the-run.

Strips are zero coupon instruments, and do not carry any coupon. Therefore statement III is not correct.

A lower bid-ask or bid-offer spread indicates lower transaction costs and is a result of greater liquidity. A higher bid-ask spread results for less liquid securities. Therefore statement IV is not correct.

The greater the rebalancing frequency, the more effective the hedge. But the higher the rebalancing frequency (ie the how often the hedge is true-ed up as a response to changes in the market), higher are the transaction costs. Higher transaction costs reduce hedge performance. Therefore transaction costs limit the ability of traders to continuously trade and keep delta at or close to zero. Transaction costs include a number of elements, including market impact costs, dollar costs per trade, and the bid-offer spread on the security.

Traders have to strike a balance between transaction costs and the rebalancing frequency when making decisions on hedging. Bid-offer spreads, cost per trade and the rebalancing frequency are therefore relevant considerations. The volatility of the underlying is not something the trader would consider when taking decisions to delta hedge (unless as part of an active bet on future volatility) and therefore Choice 'c' is irrelevant to the trader's decision, and is the correct answer.

Imagine a bond that provides just two cash flows: $100 in one year and $10 in 10 years. Imagine another bond that pays nothing now but $100 in 10 years. Assume that both have identical yields to maturity. Yet despite the identical YTM, the bonds are quite dissimilar. For the first bond, we face the risk that we would receive the bulk of the present value of the bond in an year's time, and while there is a small amount due in 10 years, the first payment may not find an equally attractive investment opportunity. Reinvestment risk refers to the risk that cash flows from a bond may not be investible at the yield to maturity for the bond. In such cases, bonds that have longer durations are preferable.

A coupon bearing bond with a coupon rate lower than our benchmark bond will carry a lower reinvestment risk as its cash flows are weighted more towards the end. An amortizing bond returns a part of the principle periodically, increasing reinvestment risk. A higher coupon bearing bond will have a higher reinvestment risk, and a zero coupon bond will have the least reinvestment risk.

Fixed income instruments go through the 'pull-to-par' phenomenon as they get closer to maturity. In this case, since interest rates stay constant, the bond will rise in price over the year to get closer to its redemption value. Of course, you can apply the standard discounting logic as well to say that while one year's coupon payment drops off, the remaining years' cash flows get discounted for a year less and the value would go up. However it is just easier to remember that at maturity the bond will be close to its notional or face value, and therefore if it is selling at a discount now, it will rise in value over its remaining life to get to the face value.

Exactly the reverse logic would apply to bonds sold at a premium, they would decline in value over time as to get to the par value at maturity.

Credit derivatives can indeed be used for reducing credit exposures, earning credit risk premiums and getting market exposure without taking cash market positions. They cannot be used for reducing interest rate risks, as they pay out only when agreed 'credit events' take place. Changes in interest rates are not a credit event. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.